With 121 days until Sweden’s general election on September 13, 2026, the latest polls point to a fragmented parliament and no clear path to a stable majority. Here is what the numbers show.
Quick Facts
- Election date: September 13, 2026
- Seats needed for majority: 175 out of 349 in the Riksdag
- Current governing bloc: 44.1% in poll trend
- Polls tracked: Verian, Demoskop, Ipsos, Novus, Indikator Opinion
Current Poll Standings
The Social Democrats (S) lead with 32.8% in the latest poll trend, up 2.5 percentage points since the 2022 election. The Sweden Democrats (SD) sit second at 19.5%, down 1.0 point from 2022.
Moderaterna (M) are third at 17.7%. Behind them, Vansterpartiet (V) holds 7.7%, Miliopartiet (MP) 6.8%, Centerpartiet (C) 6.0%, and Kristdemokraterna (KD) 5.0%. Liberalerna (L) are at 2.5%, below the 4% threshold for parliamentary entry.
Recent movement shows Miljopartiet gaining +0.8 over the past 30 days, while Sverigedemokraterna lost 1.0 point in the same period.
Current poll standings for Sweden’s 2026 general election as of May 2026.
Parliamentary Math: No Majority for Current Government
The current governing coalition holds 44.1% in the poll trend, short of a parliamentary majority. With 349 seats in the Riksdag, 175 are needed for a majority.
Based on current polling, seat projections break down as:
- S: 120 seats, 34.4%
- SD: 71 seats, 20.3%
- M: 65 seats, 18.6%
- V: 28 seats, 8.0%
- MP: 25 seats, 7.2%
- C: 22 seats, 6.3%
- KD: 18 seats, 5.2%
Possible Coalition Scenarios
No single bloc has a clear majority, making coalition talks likely after the election.
The strongest potential alliance is a centre-left grouping of Socialdemokraterna, Vansterpartiet, Miliopartiet, and Centerpartiet, projected at 55.9%. A Social Democrats + Moderaterna grand coalition comes in at 53.0%.
On the right, a coalition of Sverigedemokraterna, Moderaterna, Centerpartiet, and Kristdemokraterna would reach 50.4%. Other combinations, including various centre-left and centre-right groupings, range from 46.7% to 49.6%.
Poll trend data showing party movement over the past 30 days.
What Recent Polls Show
Individual polls from April and May 2026 show a consistent picture:
- Verian, May 10: S 32.5%, SD 18.9%, M 17.2%
- Demoskop, April 27: S 33.2%, SD 19.9%, M 16.5%
- Ipsos, April 27: S 32.0%, M 19.0%, SD 19.0%
- Indikator Opinion, April 27: S 33.6%, SD 19.4%, M 18.3%
- Novus, April 19: S 32.4%, SD 19.8%, M 18.4%
Polling accuracy varies. Demoskop, Ipsos, Novus, and Verian are listed as highly accurate, while Indikator Opinion is listed with lower accuracy.
A Reddit thread discussing Sweden’s 2026 election polling data.
The Parties in Play
The Social Democrats remain the largest party and have gained since 2022. Sverigedemokraterna, currently part of the governing arrangement, have slipped slightly but remain the second-largest force.
Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna, and Liberalerna make up the traditional centre-right, though Liberalerna are polling below the parliamentary threshold. On the left and green side, Vansterpartiet, Miliopartiet, and Centerpartiet are all polling above 6%.
The current government includes Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna, and Liberalerna, with parliamentary support from Sverigedemokraterna.
Final Thoughts
With four months to go, the race remains open. The key question is whether a stable centre-left or right-leaning coalition can emerge, or if Sweden faces another period of minority government and complex negotiations after September 13.
Track live polling data at PolitPro Sweden.
